COVID-19 among people experiencing homelessness in England: a modelling study
September 23, 2020
Lewer D, Braithwaite I, Bullock M, et al.
Lancet Respiratory Medicine
This study investigated the incidence of COVID-19 among people experiencing homelessness in England through modelling daily interactions of individuals who were susceptible to, exposed to, infectious with, or recovered from COVID-19 in community settings (hostels, night shelters, and sleeping outside), COVID-19 related accommodations, or hospitals. The study formulated a number of scenarios that differed based on timeline of the pandemic (first-wave or future) as well as lockdown measures implemented. The model estimated that in the first wave of infections, preventative measures avoided 21,092 (19,777-22,147) infections and 266 (266-301) deaths among the homeless population. These measures included infection control, hotel accommodations, and any mixing with the general population. Upon continuation of these measures and a second wave, the model predicted an increase in excess cases with 1,754 infections (1543–1960) and 31 deaths (21–45) in the general population. Without preventative measures, numbers of infections, deaths, and hospital and ICU admissions would largely increase, regardless of a low COVID-19 incidence rate in the general population.
Lewer D, Braithwaite I, Bullock M, et al. COVID-19 among people experiencing homelessness in England: a modelling study. Lancet Respir 2020; 0. DOI:10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30396-9.