Associations of Government-Mandated Closures and Restrictions With Aggregate Mobility Trends and SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Nigeria

January 20, 2021

Daniel O. Erim, MD, PhD, MSc; Gbemisola A. Oke, BDS, MPH, PhD; Akinyele O. Adisa, BDS; Oluwakemi Odukoya, MBBS, MPH, MSc; Olalekan A. Ayo-Yusuf, BDS, MPH, MSc, PhD; Theodora Nawa Erim, MEd; Tina N. Tsafa, PhD; Martin M. Meremikwu, MBBCh, MSc; Israel T. Agaku, DMD, MPH, PhD

JAMA Network Open

Erim et al. performed a cross-sectional analysis of the effects government-mandated closures and restrictions had on aggregate mobility and SARS-CoV-2 infections in Nigeria. Closures were initiated on March 30, 2020, with a partial ease starting on May 4, 2020. Mobility data was collected through Google (Alphabet) between February 27 and July 21, 2020 using aggregated and anonymized mobile device location data, and SARS-CoV-2 infection data was collected through the Nigeria Center for Disease Control. Mobility data was provided as the percentage change in movement compared to baseline between January 3 and February 4, 2020, across six categories (retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residential). Associations of closures and restrictions with aggregate mobility were performed through interrupted time series regression models and showed negative associations throughout all 6 categories except residential, for which there was a positive association. Most associations reversed after May 4, 2020. Associations of closures and restrictions with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections were analysed through negative binomial regression models and showed that every percentage point increase in aggregate mobility was associated with higher incidences of infection in residential areas, transit stations, and workplaces. The government-mandated closures were estimated to have averted up to 58 million cases over the study period.

Erim DO, Oke GA, Adisa AO, et al. Associations of Government-Mandated Closures and Restrictions With Aggregate Mobility Trends and SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Nigeria. JAMA Netw open 2021; 4: e2032101.

Partners