Forecasting critical care bed requirements for COVID-19 patients in England

March 22, 2020

Jombart T, Nightingale ES, Jit M, et al.

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases

Jombart et al. estimate the critical care bed demand in England may be challenged by the end of March based on projections using estimates of COVID-19 admissions and both short (8 days) and long (10 days) median durations of hospitalizations. The authors found the average daily demand for critical care beds across England will range from 1,931 for a shorter duration of hospital stay and 100% admissions reporting, to 4,364 for the longer duration hospital stay and 80% admissions reporting. These projections may be an under-estimate as they were modeled using a lower growth rate than most other forecasts and do not consider hospital capacity requirements for other conditions.

Jombart T, Nightingale ES, Jit M, et al. Forecasting critical care bed requirements for COVID-19 patients in England. Cent Math Model Infect Dis 2020.

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