Mitigation Policies and COVID-19–Associated Mortality — 37 European Countries, January 23–June 30, 2020

January 15, 2021

James A. Fuller, PhD; Avi Hakim, MPH; Kerton R. Victory, PhD; Kashmira Date, MD; Michael Lynch, MD; Benjamin Dahl, PhD; Olga Henao, PhD; CDC COVID-19 Response Team

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)

Fuller et al. examined different COVID-19 mitigation strategies implemented by various European countries to compare varying timelines and mortality rates. The mitigation policies included cancellation of public events, school closures, gathering restrictions, workplace closures, border closures, internal movement restrictions, public transport orders, stay at home recommendations, and stay-at-home orders. These policies were measured by the Oxford Stringency Index (OSI), a scale ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being the strictest policies put in place, and measured on the day a country reached the COVID-19 mortality threshold of 0.02 COVID-related deaths per 100,000 people. A linear regression model was used to compare the OSI when the mortality threshold was reached. Findings showed that the earlier the policies were put in place the fewer people died, with a one-unit increase in standard deviation of OSI resulting in 12.5 fewer deaths per 100,000 people. The authors suggest that further studies should be conducted to determine which policies are the most effective and when they should be put in place to save the most lives.

Fuller JA, Hakim A, Victory KR, et al. Mitigation Policies and COVID-19–Associated Mortality — 37 European Countries, January 23–June 30, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021; 70. DOI:10.15585/mmwr.mm7002e4

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