Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

May 5, 2021

Rebecca K. Borchering, PhD1,*; Cécile Viboud, PhD2,*; Emily Howerton1; Claire P. Smith3; Shaun Truelove, PhD3; Michael C. Runge, PhD4; Nicholas G. Reich, PhD5; Lucie Contamin, MS6; John Levander6; Jessica Salerno, MPH6; Wilbert van Panhuis, PhD6; Matt Kinsey, PhD7; Kate Tallaksen, MS7; R. Freddy Obrecht, PhD7; Laura Asher, MPS7; Cash Costello, MS7; Michael Kelbaugh7; Shelby Wilson, PhD7; Lauren Shin7; Molly E. Gallagher, PhD7; Luke C. Mullany, PhD7; Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, PhD7; Joseph C. Lemaitre, MS8; Juan Dent, ScM3; Kyra H. Grantz3; Joshua Kaminsky, MS3; Stephen A. Lauer, PhD3; Elizabeth C. Lee, PhD3; Hannah R. Meredith, PhD3; Javier Perez-Saez, PhD3; Lindsay T. Keegan, PhD9; Dean Karlen, PhD10; Matteo Chinazzi, PhD11; Jessica T. Davis11; Kunpeng Mu11; Xinyue Xiong, MSc11; Ana Pastore y Piontti, PhD11; Alessandro Vespignani, PhD11; Ajitesh Srivastava, PhD12; Przemyslaw Porebski, PhD13; Srinivasan Venkatramanan, PhD13; Aniruddha Adiga, PhD13; Bryan Lewis, PhD13; Brian Klahn, MS13; Joseph Outten13; James Schlitt, PhD13; Patrick Corbett13; Pyrros Alexander Telionis, PhD13; Lijing Wang, MS13; Akhil Sai Peddireddy13; Benjamin Hurt, MS13; Jiangzhuo Chen, PhD13; Anil Vullikanti, PhD13; Madhav Marathe, PhD13; Jessica M. Healy, PhD14; Rachel B. Slayton, PhD14; Matthew Biggerstaff, ScD14; Michael A. Johansson, PhD14; Katriona Shea, PhD1,†; Justin Lessler, PhD3,†.


Borchering et al. created models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States across four scenarios with different vaccination rates, effectiveness estimates, and quality and implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The data was collected through March 27, 2021 from the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering Coronavirus Resource Center and federal databases, and they projected weekly reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, both nationally and by jurisdiction for April-September 2021. The expectation is that with high vaccination coverage and moderate NPI adherence, hospitalizations and deaths will likely remain low nationally, with a sharp decline in cases projected by July 1st, 2021. Lower NPI adherence could lead to substantial increases in severe COVID-19 outcomes, even with improved vaccination coverage, which could keep the United States from declining below 15,000 weekly cases through September.

Borchering RK, Viboud C, Howerton E, et al. Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases , Hospitalizations , and Deaths , by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021. 2021; 70.

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