Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in lowincome and middle-income countries: a modelling study

July 13, 2020

Hogan AB, Jewell BL, Sherrard-smith E, et al.

The Lancet Global Health

Researchers conducted a study to understand how disruption to healthcare services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low and middle income (LMIC) countries have been and may be affected by the burden of COVID-19 in health systems. Four scenarios were constructed to lay out the range of possible trajectories of COVID-19 and potential disruptions in LMICs with a basic reproduction number of 3. The four scenarios used to model transmission of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria included: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. Results showed that the deaths attributed to HIV could increase up to 10% over five years, largely due to interruptions of antiretroviral viral therapy (ART). For tuberculosis, the increase in deaths is predicted to be due to reduced diagnosis and treatment of new cases, leading to a 20% increase in tuberculosis deaths over five years. Lastly, malaria deaths are predicted largely due to interruption of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) distributions before seasonal malaria transmission peaks, with an increase of up to 36% of deaths over five years. Overall, disruption of important health services during the COVID-19 pandemic may lead to excess deaths by other infectious diseases; thus, maintaining the continuity of services should be a priority to reduce the overall health impact of COVID-19.

Hogan AB, Jewell BL, Sherrard-smith E, et al. Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries : a modelling study. Lancet Glob Heal 2020; : 1–10.

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