Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations

February 2, 2021

Theresa Andrasfay and Noreen Goldman

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA)

This study aims to highlight the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on the life expectancy of Black and Latino populations. An analysis of life expectancy values at birth and at 65-years for the total US population in 2020 was conducted under four projected scenarios of death by race and ethnicity. One scenario included mortality projections had the COVID-19 pandemic not occurred and the other three projections were ofCOVID-19 mortalities through December 31, 2020 based on three different scenarios (high, medium, and low mortality based on masking practices) modeled by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The medium estimate indicated a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 years to 77.48 years, which is lower than any year since 2003. The authors also projected a 0.87-year reduction in life expectancy at age 65. Additionally, they estimated a 2.2-year decline in life expectancy at birth for Latino populations and 3.05-year decline for Black populations compared to a 0.68-year reduction for White populations. These estimates suggest that the Black to White life expectancy gap would grow from 3.6 years to over 5 years, an increase of nearly 40%. Meanwhile, the 3-year survival advantage resulting from the epidemiological “Latino paradox” would decrease to less than 1 year.

Andrasfay T, Goldman N. Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2021; 118: e2014746118.

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