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The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries
October 22, 2020
Li Y, Campbell H, Kulkarni D, et al.
Lancet Infectious Diseases
Li et al. evaluated the temporal association between introducing or lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2. The model included 790 phases with a median duration of 11 days (IQR 3-27 days) from 131 countries. Results indicated that there was a delay in the change in R for both introducing and lifting NPIs. When introducing NPIs, a median of 8 days (IQR 6-9 days) was needed to observe 60% of the maximum reduction in R. Relaxing NPIs required a median of 17 days (IQR 14-20 days) to observe 60% of the maximum increase in R. Individual NPIs, such as schools closures and stay-at-home requirements, were associated with a 3-28% decrease in R 28 days after introduction. Lifting these NPIs was associated with an increase in R of 11-25% 28 days after relaxation. These findings suggest that banning public events resulted in the greatest reduction in R, with an R ratio on day 28 of 0.76 (95% CI:
Li Y, Campbell H, Kulkarni D, et al. The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries. Lancet Infect Dis 2020; 0. DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30785-4.
