Resilience of countries to COVID-19 correlated with trust

June 1, 2022

Timothy M. Lenton, Chris A. Boulton & Marten Scheffer

Nature Scientific Reports

To understand the difference in nation performance in reducing COVID-19 infections and deaths, cultural and social impacts on resilience against COVID-19 were examined at the country level in 156 countries. Resilience to COVID-19 was defined as the rate of decline in daily cases and deaths at the national level from peak levels, being indicative of a country's ability to recover from COVID-19 surges. A country's resilience to COVID-19 was positively correlated with societal trust and an adaptive approach to increasing the stringency of government interventions when COVID-19 reports occur. Government stringency was defined by indicators such as: closure of schools, workplaces, public transportation; cancellation of public events; restriction of meetings; stay-at-home campaigns; restriction of indoor movement; restriction on international travel; and public information campaigns. Trust was measured by the percentage of agreement with the statement "Most people can be trusted" in the World Values Survey. Notably, resilience was weakly correlated with country wealth and not with society's trust in politics or government. Lenton et al. propose that trust is an important factor for resilience during epidemics.

Lenton TM, Boulton CA, Scheffer M. Resilience of countries to COVID-19 correlated with trust. Scientific Reports 2022, 12: 75.

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